Premiership Relegation 2012

11 games to go in the race for Premier League safety, and it's reasonably fair to say - it's a five horse race. 8 points clear of the dogfight, it's difficult to see three contenders win three more games than Aston Villa, so the contestants fighting to plant themselves on the two remaining elite seats in the musical charade of top flight football are QPR, Wolves, Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan.

The Man On football predictor has analysed all the factors and here are the results, who stays and who goes:

(Combined Remaining Opponents Rank = Sum of the current league positions of remaining opponents)

16th
Bolton:
Home Form: LDWDL
Away Form: LLLLW
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 127
Goals Scored: 29
Goals Against: 56

A strangely disappointing season for the Trotters, after years of building an established Premier League team. All the pieces seemed relatively in place for Bolton to continue to progress up the Premier League hierarchy although things are not as expected. Poor defence and a lack of bite in the team have resulted in many defeats and poor performances although the remaining quarter of the season has promise for Owen Coyle. Bolton play all the teams around them and have control over their own destiny. The only top sides they play are Spurs and Newcastle, and Tottenham will visit the Reebok. Injuries to major squad members are residing and this year's shrewd loan signing Ryo Miyaichi doesn't look too far off his predecessors - Jack Wilshere and Daniel Sturridge. On the strength of fixtures alone, Bolton look likely to pick up a pocketful of points and the number of points needed for safety could be an record low this year. A couple of wins look possible and that would bring Bolton within touching distance of safety and consolidation for another year.

17th
Blackburn:
Home Form: DWLWL
Away Form: LLDLW
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 122
Goals Scored: 38
Goals Against: 60

Blackburn's season has been tumultuous to say the least. Ever since an indifferent season in 2010 wherein Venky's management of the club was highly criticised, the club have looked a shadow of the side they were, even a few seasons ago. This year has been plagued with controversy, bad luck and poor play - Rovers have been an interesting club to follow to say the least. Steve Kean has been the constant figurehead of criticism for the less than faithful section of the Ewood Park crowd but despite this, he is still regarded as a top coach by fellow professionals. The side ships goals alarmingly - no clean sheet this season and 19 goals conceded in 4 games in February; however, there is some quality in the side - Yakubu, Hoilett, Robinson, Pedersen - and the team have performed well at times and have some memorable wins against the likes of United and Arsenal. It will be close, but Blackburn Rovers should have the quality to keep their heads above the mire of relegation. Just.

18th
Wolves:
Home Form: LLLLL
Away Form: LDWDD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 122
Goals Scored: 30
Goals Against: 51


The story surrounding Wolverhampton's dismissal of Mick McCarthy, and the promotion of Terry Connor sums up the apparent fortunes of the Midlands side. Nobody thought Wolves were an attractive, or saveable team. After a promising start to the season, the team have only won one game since the start of December. They took nearly 33% of their points in the first 3 games. They've taken 10 points from the 5 games against relegation candidates to date and face games with massive implications in March. This said, the side don't show as much talent as others around them and lack big name players to turn matches in their favour. In the reverse fixtures against the remaining ties, Wolves took 15 points, which might be enough to keep them up if repeated. Sadly, McCarthy's departure and the instability it will have created within the ranks could well be too much for the side to claw their way to safety. The game at home against Blackburn on March 10th will be key.

19th
QPR:
Home Form: DLLLW
Away Form: LDLLD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 86
Goals Scored: 28
Goals Against: 46

The run-in says it all for Queens Park Rangers. Man City; Man United; Spurs; Arsenal; Chelsea; Liverpool - QPR play 8 of the top 10 in their last 11 games. On paper, there is an argument to say that they have the strongest first team, manager, defence and attack; but it's a case of leaving it too late for rangers. They have only taken 7 points off their relegation rivals all season, and after this weekend's game against Bolton they cannot expect to take more than a couple of draws from the heavyweights of the league.

20th
Wigan:
Home Form: LDDLL
Away Form: WLLLD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 97
Goals Scored: 23
Goals Against: 52

Simply being in the Premier League is an achievement for Wigan - some may say, an overachievement. 7 consecutive seasons wherein a stable club has been run, has been a credit to owner Dave Whelan, but every year the club has looked more and more likely to drop out of the top flight. Last season, the Lactics left it very late collecting 8 points from their last 4 games, and winning on the final day at Stoke to secure safety. This year looks bleaker, with the next 9 games against the sides currently occupying 2nd to 11th place in the league. Intriguingly, the penultimate and ultimate games are against Blackburn and Wolves - so if Martinez's men can stay in contention until May, their destiny is in their own hands. Unfortunately, the side's lack of goals (they are the only PL side to average under a goal a game) appears to be condemning the side to the root of the table.