Why Grant Holt Should Represent England At Euro 2012

Let's not disguise it, England has a problem. For years now, the national side has had its issues: with managers; with formations and with players. This summer's tournament in Poland and Ukraine is no different, and as it stands the team has no leader, no manager and no direction. Come June, Stuart Pearce (or possibly a Harry Redknapp cameo) will have to sew a patchwork squad together whilst the press howls for a new generation to be blooded. Whereas the future is obviously important, this year's tournament is about now and represents a unique opportunity for an underdog to steal the title, and for England to do so, they need their own underdog. Grant Holt.

There are obvious voices for opposition to Holt's promotion to the top stage, he's not fast and he has no experience at International or Continental level, he only has 33 games at Premier League level. Recent call-ups for over 30's have not produced any performances of outstanding note. Examples include Kevin Davies' call-up to face Montenegro in 2011, Alan Thompson's substitute appearance in a 2004 friendly, Tim Sherwood - under Keegan - and Chris Powell's 5 game run at left back in 2001. History does not favour the shock call-ups and even if there is a shock - take Theo Walcott in 2006 - they still might not get to play.

 

But enough of the negatives, this blog is about massaging the minds of the England selectors (whom I sincerely hope are reading) into taking the Norfolk legend-in-the-making to Krakow, in both the hope that he will add to the national side, and get his just rewards for a dedicated career in the game.

Originally from Carlisle, Holt has progressed through Workington, Halifax and Barrow up to Nottingham Forest and Norwich, playing in over 6 tiers. A summer cameo for Sengkang Marine in Singapore is also in his resume. You don't play 350 English League games without learning a few tricks and the natural progression with Norwich, as top club scorer in 3 consecutive leagues stamps his ability to adapt to higher levels with ease.

Holt's goals this year have come against International quality defences. Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton and Swansea have hosted 5 of his strikes and at home Blackburn, QPR, Newcastle, Man Utd, Wolves and Everton have felt the force of Holt. Out of these teams, the defenders on show represent England, Holland, France, Sweden, Portugal, Wales, Serbia, Slovakia and Congo at the top. Stamford Bridge, Anfield and Goodison Park are not easy places to go and score and the only top teams missing from the list of internationals are Spain and Germany.

With regards to those goals, there aren't many scrappy ones. For all their passing and technique, Norwich are a long ball team, with a league high 15 of their 47 goals coming from headers. 5 of these were Holt's. He took two penalties and scored them both - of which there is obvious value to the national side. In short, Holt's natural game would fit into the England set up, as the history of playing wingers and aiming to beat teams down the flanks requires someone capable of good positioning and heading ability. 2 of England's 3 goals at the last World Cup came from crosses. With Ashley Young, Adam Johnson, Theo Walcott, Aaron Lennon, James Milner, Stewart Downing or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain likely to make the team, and overlapping fullbacks, Grant Holt is much more accomplished to finish the chances these players would create then the likes of Jermaine Defoe, Darren Bent or Danny Welbeck.

But Holt isn't just a battering ram or target man. His goal to swing the tie against Wolves was the mark of a striker with a great footballing mind, and the touch and composure to match, which drew the attention of others than just myself: 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/mar/25/norwich-wolverhampton-wanderers-premier-league-report1

And finally, the comparison against his competition:

• Defoe - Took a while, but graduated to become an England regular. If he had played for Spurs all season, would be a certainty; probably to start. The irony is that Harry Redknapp's lack of faith in him may be carried to the England side should he step up.
• Bent - A completely different player to Holt. A poacher, who's played for a bad team this year. Seems to score goals all the time, except for his rare England chances.
• Sturridge - Has shown talent, including substitute appearance in the latest friendly. Should be taken, but deployed on the wing.
• Welbeck - Has moved into Sir Alex Ferguson's first team, but still needs to improve finishing and first touch before becoming integral to England. Is developing a rapport with Rooney.
• Rooney - No-one will keep him out, England's best striker.
• Crouch - Holt's main comparison, has had his chances but hasn't been as hot at Stoke.
• Carroll - Flopped after gargantuan transfer, may mature to hold England number 9 shirt, far too inconsistent and out of form.
• Zamora - Can be a brilliant target, but form has been patchy and needs a consistent domestic season to impress.
• Campbell - Missed too much of Sunderland's season, despite fleeting shines.
• Agbonlahor - Has missed games and played in a poor side, may have missed chance.
• Graham - Done Holt's job at Swansea. Hasn't done more than good finishing.

There are infinite combinations of reasons to support and condemn a player's selection for England, but the point trying to be raised for Grant Holt's inclusion in the Squad for Poland and Ukraine is that all his stock is falling together at just the right time. He's had a relatively easy season - 38 games maximum - and in those games he's scored goals, set up attractive play and maintained great form. Behind Rooney, he is statistically England's best striker and on the tactics board he ticks all the boxes of England's game plan. A final point of note is his influence on a squad. As Norwich captain, he's a leader, who knows the game and knows how to inspire the players around him. Holt would bring a refreshing change from the normal mentality of an England player, who realistically would be making his grand finale of journeyman football career. With nothing to lose, and nothing bigger in his career after this summer, he wouldn't take himself too seriously (I'll never forget watching him instigate an ear flicking policy on the loser of a keepy-uppy contest in a warm-up) and would play with the freedom that would allow his talent to flow at the tournament.

Barring Paul Lambert's surprise call up as manager, I implore the boss to select Holt, as the catalyst for tournament success needs some ingenuity and braveness, and Grant Holt's inclusion might just give that to the nation.

Who Are Anhzi Makhachkala?

The world is turned by money. The footballing world is moulded by it. Any club can be plucked from nothing and thrust into the world's spotlight if enough cash is showered over the team. That is what happened to Anhzi Makhachkala.

It's safe to assume that you've heard of the Russian club, or have heard of their antics over the last year, but who exactly are 'the wild division' and how did their story arise?
First a little history. Formed in 1991 (they're younger than Mario Balotelli), the club are based in the Dagestan region of Russian - of which Makhachkala is the capital. Instead of the permafrost image of Cossack hats and vodka; think more of the middle east, as the city is nearer to Baghdad then Moscow. In their 20 years of existence, they have dined at Russia's top table 4 times, and apart from one 4th place finish, have never played better than a Premiership relegation fodder. If they were in English football; they would be Ipswich Town. This brief history is nothing, compared to the intense transformation that has happened since January 2011, when Suleyman Kerimov took over the club.

With £7.8bn as his personal fortune, Kerimov is the 118th richest man in the world. If you're grasping for some perspective, he is only narrowly eclipsed by the more familiar fiscally endowed Premiership owners of Chelsea and Man City:



Kerimov - born in Dagestan, and an accounting and economics graduate from the city's University - is the equivalent of a minister in Russia's 'democratic' government. It may be hard to understand how Kerimov has nearly £8bn, whereas John Prescott - his British equivalent (and I use that in the loosest possible context) - doesn't. Put simply, the Russian government owns half of Gazprom - the world's largest gas producer. With turnover of $117bn a year - that's 1.17 trillion dollars - the Russian government collect $58 billion per year, and not all of that finds its way to the peasants. Kerimov decided to invest in his beloved hometown, and what better way than to pluck the minnows out of obscurity and place them on a plinth to impress the European elite.

Aside from building a new 40,000 seater stadium and investing heavily in infrastructure, he has spent lavishly on players, so much so that the already distorted boundaries of morals and logic have been torn at the seams. Anzhi Makhachkala's starting XI reads so:

Gabulov

     Angbwa         Joao Carlos          Samba         Roberto Carlos

Boussoufa          Carcela-Gonzalez            Jucilei        Zhirkov

     Eto'o            Holenda

Of these names, only the Chelsea cast-off Yuri Zhirkov is the only Russian. Big names including ex-Blackburn star Christopher Samba added to the colossal verterans Roberto Carlos and Samuel Eto'o this year, who became the world's highest earning footballer in the deal with a reported $20million post tax salary, per year. That's close to what Premier League teams can spend in wages on an entire squad. There's no doubting that bigger names will continue to drop in Dagestan with the only competition in terms of financial firepower from emerging Chinese forces. The club's development will explode when the side qualifies for European football, which could be as early as next season. The Russian Premier League is in a transition period as the season start time is being changed from November to August. To accommodate this, this season's championship is being extended into a marathon 18 month campaign, ending in May 2012. After November 2011, the table was split in 2 and the two halves of 8 teams will play each other twice more to determine the winners of European places and relegation. Anhzi scraped into the top half with two games to spare this year, but with the points carrying over for the last shootout campaign, it is unlikely that the out of form team will achieve any top honours.

Next season will be an astonishing spectacle. The club will no doubt sign a host of marquee names and continue to develop under new boss Guus Hiddink's masterful tutelage. With the money behind them, in a less than top league the side will be in the 2014 Champions League and it will be a delight to see how the Manchester's and London's deal with the prospect of a chilly night in Dagestan, considering the environment is not what could be described as, familiar, in the capital.

European Coefficients: Who's Letting Whose Side Down?

Last night marked the worst English performance in European club football since 2003. Following the best part of a decade of Champions League and Europa League (UEFA Cup to the seasoned supporter and I) success, the drying pool of English European talent is becoming abundantly clear.

The current UEFA Country Coefficient reads as such:

#	country	07/08	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	ranking	teams
1	England	17.875	15.000	17.928	18.357	14.000	83.160	1/ 8
2	Spain	13.875	13.312	17.928	18.214	16.000	79.329	5/ 7
3	Germany	13.500	12.687	18.083	15.666	13.583	73.519	3/ 6
4	Italy	10.250	11.375	15.428	11.571	11.214	59.838	1/ 7
5	Portugal	7.928	6.785	10.000	18.800	10.833	54.346	2/ 6
6	France	6.928	11.000	15.000	10.750	10.500	54.178	1/ 6
7	Russia	11.250	9.750	6.166	10.916	9.750	47.832	6
8	Netherlands	5.000	6.333	9.416	11.166	13.200	45.115	1/ 5
9	Ukraine	4.875	16.625	5.800	10.083	7.583	44.966	1/ 6
10	Greece	7.500	6.500	7.900	7.600	7.600	37.100	5

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2012.html

Fulham provided England with an extra team following a fair play league bonus entry this year but from now on, the focus falls on the future of coefficient; and whether England will fall back down the rankings. Spain effectively need their 5 remaining representatives to win both ties of their quarter finals and then two of their teams go on to win the Champions League and the Europa League between them, to overhaul England this year. A repeat of this season's performances - minus Fulham's results as they were a bonus side this year - would leave England's yearly coefficient at 11.875 (plus Chelsea's results in this year's Quarter Finals). With a total of 77.16 and Spain clearly on top, Germany would more than likely surpass the English and England's focus would be on retaining their 7th representative from the sides below.

In terms of calculating England's Coefficient, the teams' performance's impact as so:

	Clubs	qW	qD	qL	W	D	L	Bonus	Pts	Average
		Arsenal	2	0	0	4	2	2	9.000
		Chelsea	0	0	0	4	2	2	10.000
		Man. City	0	0	0	6	1	3	4.000
		Man. United	0	0	0	3	3	4	4.000
		Stoke	4	0	0	3	2	3	0.000
		Tottenham	1	1	0	3	1	2	0.000
		Birmingham	1	1	0	3	1	2	0.000
		Fulham	5	2	1	2	2	2	0.000
1		England	13	4	1	28	14	20	27.000	112.000	14.000

 http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/association=eng/uefarankings/index.html

Chelsea and Arsenal's European results have been the most impressive this year. The irony is that only one of them is likely to take next year's 4th Champions League place following sub-standard Premier League form this term.

When both Manchester clubs were pre-season favourites to progress in the elite tournament, their failure and subsequent elimination in the sister cup resulted in the significant knock to England's coefficient. Some cite a lack of interest from the best sides in an 'inferior' cup whilst the need to win the Premier League and qualify for next year's Champions League takes priority. This mentality will only damage the future of English football. If our representatives throw their games to maintain their elite status the gulf between the perennial European sides and the aspirational pretenders will only widen and a reduction in the designation of English spots will all but remove hope for the likes of Everton, Newcastle, Stoke and others.

The presence, or lack of, of Manchester United and City in the Europa League is a blight on the Premier League, when the whole midtable would give anything to represent their country on that stage. I'm not suggesting that Sunderland would be able to stop the beautiful play that Bilbao produced in two legs against United, but the stadium would be sold out, the team would play with the passion of a cup final and the country would be well represented. Take Stoke City's play compared to Tottenham's in their Europa League groups. Stoke progressed from a tougher group while Spurs played their reserves and lost, the rewards for next season - Spurs will play Champions League and barring a FA Cup triumph Stoke have nothing.

Is a change in the way England is represented at Continental level needed? Or will forward financial planning and Europa League snobbery shrink our coefficient and segregate the elite from those actually want to be there?

Or are we just not as good as we think we are...

Premiership Relegation 2012

11 games to go in the race for Premier League safety, and it's reasonably fair to say - it's a five horse race. 8 points clear of the dogfight, it's difficult to see three contenders win three more games than Aston Villa, so the contestants fighting to plant themselves on the two remaining elite seats in the musical charade of top flight football are QPR, Wolves, Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan.

The Man On football predictor has analysed all the factors and here are the results, who stays and who goes:

(Combined Remaining Opponents Rank = Sum of the current league positions of remaining opponents)

16th
Bolton:
Home Form: LDWDL
Away Form: LLLLW
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 127
Goals Scored: 29
Goals Against: 56

A strangely disappointing season for the Trotters, after years of building an established Premier League team. All the pieces seemed relatively in place for Bolton to continue to progress up the Premier League hierarchy although things are not as expected. Poor defence and a lack of bite in the team have resulted in many defeats and poor performances although the remaining quarter of the season has promise for Owen Coyle. Bolton play all the teams around them and have control over their own destiny. The only top sides they play are Spurs and Newcastle, and Tottenham will visit the Reebok. Injuries to major squad members are residing and this year's shrewd loan signing Ryo Miyaichi doesn't look too far off his predecessors - Jack Wilshere and Daniel Sturridge. On the strength of fixtures alone, Bolton look likely to pick up a pocketful of points and the number of points needed for safety could be an record low this year. A couple of wins look possible and that would bring Bolton within touching distance of safety and consolidation for another year.

17th
Blackburn:
Home Form: DWLWL
Away Form: LLDLW
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 122
Goals Scored: 38
Goals Against: 60

Blackburn's season has been tumultuous to say the least. Ever since an indifferent season in 2010 wherein Venky's management of the club was highly criticised, the club have looked a shadow of the side they were, even a few seasons ago. This year has been plagued with controversy, bad luck and poor play - Rovers have been an interesting club to follow to say the least. Steve Kean has been the constant figurehead of criticism for the less than faithful section of the Ewood Park crowd but despite this, he is still regarded as a top coach by fellow professionals. The side ships goals alarmingly - no clean sheet this season and 19 goals conceded in 4 games in February; however, there is some quality in the side - Yakubu, Hoilett, Robinson, Pedersen - and the team have performed well at times and have some memorable wins against the likes of United and Arsenal. It will be close, but Blackburn Rovers should have the quality to keep their heads above the mire of relegation. Just.

18th
Wolves:
Home Form: LLLLL
Away Form: LDWDD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 122
Goals Scored: 30
Goals Against: 51


The story surrounding Wolverhampton's dismissal of Mick McCarthy, and the promotion of Terry Connor sums up the apparent fortunes of the Midlands side. Nobody thought Wolves were an attractive, or saveable team. After a promising start to the season, the team have only won one game since the start of December. They took nearly 33% of their points in the first 3 games. They've taken 10 points from the 5 games against relegation candidates to date and face games with massive implications in March. This said, the side don't show as much talent as others around them and lack big name players to turn matches in their favour. In the reverse fixtures against the remaining ties, Wolves took 15 points, which might be enough to keep them up if repeated. Sadly, McCarthy's departure and the instability it will have created within the ranks could well be too much for the side to claw their way to safety. The game at home against Blackburn on March 10th will be key.

19th
QPR:
Home Form: DLLLW
Away Form: LDLLD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 86
Goals Scored: 28
Goals Against: 46

The run-in says it all for Queens Park Rangers. Man City; Man United; Spurs; Arsenal; Chelsea; Liverpool - QPR play 8 of the top 10 in their last 11 games. On paper, there is an argument to say that they have the strongest first team, manager, defence and attack; but it's a case of leaving it too late for rangers. They have only taken 7 points off their relegation rivals all season, and after this weekend's game against Bolton they cannot expect to take more than a couple of draws from the heavyweights of the league.

20th
Wigan:
Home Form: LDDLL
Away Form: WLLLD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 97
Goals Scored: 23
Goals Against: 52

Simply being in the Premier League is an achievement for Wigan - some may say, an overachievement. 7 consecutive seasons wherein a stable club has been run, has been a credit to owner Dave Whelan, but every year the club has looked more and more likely to drop out of the top flight. Last season, the Lactics left it very late collecting 8 points from their last 4 games, and winning on the final day at Stoke to secure safety. This year looks bleaker, with the next 9 games against the sides currently occupying 2nd to 11th place in the league. Intriguingly, the penultimate and ultimate games are against Blackburn and Wolves - so if Martinez's men can stay in contention until May, their destiny is in their own hands. Unfortunately, the side's lack of goals (they are the only PL side to average under a goal a game) appears to be condemning the side to the root of the table.

England 2-3 Holland: Concern for All

Although merely a 'friendly', tonight's Wembley clash between the 3rd and 5th best football teams in the world spelt disaster for both nations.
Aside from the loss, English fans cannot look at the display against the Netherlands and accept it, even if only three first team members started the match. England's lack of strength in options from defence through to attack were painfully obvious in mistakes from Richards, Baines and Smalling - although the latter left the game in very unfortunate circumstances. With what appeared to be a broken nose, Klass Jan Huntelaar's full speed collision with Smalling's head was wretched to watch and the health of both players following the sport's most dangerous injury will be of paramount importance and interest.

Following the news of Scott Parker's promotion to captain, his performance was one of note for the three lions. Leading through courageous example, Parker was never shy to tackle, block and hustle the heavyweight talents of Robben, Schneider and Van Persie - and kept them quiet for the first half of the game. Johnson at right wing impressed with some good line play, and his combinations with Micah Richards will be an interesting ingredient in the decisions regarding the right sided line-up of future teams. Short of this, England look desperately short of ideas in attack. Danny Welbeck is nowhere close to being international standard, as his skill of pace is redundant with no support or service. Whereas Rooney can create chances from nothing, as well as linking up attacks before becoming the finisher, Welbeck offers neither particularly well. Frazier Cambell cannot expect to be involved in senior action for the foreseeable future, or until he has strung at least a season of quality performances together. The light for England's attacking future comes from Daniel Sturridge. The Chelsea hitman displayed real flare, confidence and skill and created some chances of serious note. He would have been on the scoresheet if not for the excellence of Stekelenberg saving his snapshot with little view of it.

Where Hart, Parker and Sturridge showed class, Baines, Welbeck and Richards need to apply themselves differently to improve the team. Sadly, all three will make the squad to the Ukraine as the depth of the nation's talent pool is not great.

This also makes the assessment of the Holland performance a little less shiny for the Dutch. In the first period, the first string Netherlands attack could not break down England's reserves. In the European Championships, they will need to score from open play and the knockout phase sides will fortify their goals much more so than Richards, Baines, Cahill and Smalling. Two of the Dutch goals came from counter attacks which England have never been able to deal with. In two banks of four, they are unbreakable, but man for man the Germans tore them apart, the Dutch did tonight, and the Spanish will be merciless. Robben's winner took a lucky deflection and although one England goal was offside, the other was carved through the Dutch defence in a rare moment of English quality.

In foresight, both teams will qualify for the quarter finals in Euro 2012, but winning is beyond them. England's reinforcements will be called upon, through injury, fatigue, and mindless kick-induced suspensions. For the Netherlands, the side look strong, but will struggle to break down the highest seeds in the tournament and following an easy run in to the final of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, will not find it so easy in Eastern Europe.  

The Next Big Thing pt. 1

The Premier League tome of 20 years provides endless stories, dripping with emotion, pathos, grandeur and glory. Remarkable teams have been constructed and cities have thrived from footballing success. Aside from the Manchester Uniteds, the Chelseas and Arsenals; underdogs have risen and written their own fairytales - and this draws your attention to the quality and legacy of British football. Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Leicester City, Sheffield Wednesday, Wimbledon, Southampton: All sides who were top 10 clubs; and then fell to the third tier of the relentless pecking order.

This year Blackburn Rovers, once great champions of the battleground, look destined to fall from the echelons of British football. Whilst a tragic fall from prominence, the potential lies for new challengers to evolve into footballing superpowers.

The question is; who is the next big club to succeed in the Premier League?

The Contenders:

      STOKE CITY -----

The most progressing club in the recent premier league past is Stoke City. 10 years ago, Stoke won the 3rd Division play-off final. 4 Years ago, they came second in the Championship. This season, they are 8th in the Premier League, in the Europa League knock-out phase and are developing a squad seasoned with international footballers. There is a real air of excitement in the city that the club has established itself as perennial top flight team with the foundations to become a perennial winning team. Stoke's success is built upon 3 factors: The fans, the club structure and the spirit.

The season ticket holders in the Boothen End of the Britannia Stadium are undoubtedly the noisiest, rowdiest and most passionate fans in the country. Defenders facing a corner, free-kick or Rory Delap throw-in are gladiators in a cacophonic amphitheatre, only the striped tigers they fight are >6ft brutes intent on battering their goalmouth.

Stoke's philosophy to date has been hire terminators, press the opposition constantly, score through sheer brutality. They have been a shining example of how to survive in the premier league in the face of the 'play "like" Barce, go down with some swagger' sides. The interested now watch how Pulis develops the side. The additions of Palacios, Crouch, Woodgate and Upson add pedigree to the side (as well as 71 England caps), without compromising the bite of Shawcross and Huth and the Stanley Matthews-ery of wingers Pennant and Etherington. Now the Potters need attacking full-backs, a play maker midfielder and a clinical marksman to push them even further towards the league's elite.

In keeping with the Coates ownership style, this metamorphosis will be done slowly and to a budget - keeping the club in its comfort zone. If constant success continues, the club will be a prime takeover target for overseas investors and that is what will take Stoke City to the top of the English game.


What the future holds for Stoke City:

1. Potential signings 2012: Full-Backs - Wayne Bridge, Nedum Onuoha Midfielders - Junior Hoilett, Nigel Reo-Coker, Jermaine Jenas Attackers - Yakubu, Victor Moses
2. Fill in the stadium corners - lift the stadium capacity to over 30,000 to fund long term development (3,000 extra seats could increase ticket revenues by £2.5m per year). A dome will have to be installed to stop the noise complaints from neighbours in Wales.
3. An England call-up for Ryan Shawcross.
4. Continual top 10 finishes for the next five years, adding good players until European football is more than a one-off. Then the big money will move in and the bigger name marquee signings.