The International Hangover: Effects on the Title Chasers

The bane of top flight managers jobs, yet an excuse for failure or fatigue. The international break provides endless fodder for the media, the industry and the public to belly-ache about ill-timing, long travels and just how seriously people take them. There is definitely an effect on the league, and this blog will try to delve into just what happens to the results following these player dispersions. The first table below shows the results of the "top 6" teams in the games following and before the international break.

Conclusions to be drawn from this data include:

• Liverpool have only won 2 of the last 10 games after the international break
• Chelsea have only won 4 of the last 10 games
• Manchester City have only lost 1 of the last 10 (To Manchester United)
• Before the Everton away game as the opener this season, Manchester United were undefeated
• Tottenham were undefeated, until the 3-1 loss to Arsenal which coincided with the beginning of a spell of 1 win in 9 league games (Arguably the reason that Spurs lost the last Champions League position and lost Harry Redknapp)
• Arsenal have only one loss and none against lower level opposition - the same as Man City
• Arsenal have a poor record in the games before the break, but an excellent record in the first games back

In terms of betting, this data suggests that there is no advantage to Laying either of the Manchester clubs or Arsenal, but opportunities may arise by looking at Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool.

Looking at this information in further detail, a comparison against the clubs' general league performance over the same period can highlight areas to of interest:

On this chart, a red number means that the performances were worse than the average over the whole period and a green is an improvement. The first columns are the games after the international break and the second columns are the games before each break. 

In terms of wins, Man City and Arsenal lead the way, 15% and 18% more wins than the average for those seasons. Man Utd and Spurs are roughly the same but Chelsea and Liverpool are -12% and -20% respectively. In terms of picking out info for betting the key stats that stand out to me are:

• Arsenal to win after the break, but not before
• Liverpool not to win after the break
• Chelsea to struggle
• The draw is unlikely in Tottenham and Chelsea games pre-break

Using this information, and naturally taking into account other factors, here are some tentative early predictions for the first results following England's games in Moldova and against the Ukraine this week:

Back Arsenal to beat Southampton at Home

Back Manchester City to beat Stoke Away 

Back Manchester United to beat Wigan at Home

Lay Chelsea against QPR Away

Lay Liverpool against Sunderland Away

Lay Tottenham against Reading Away

European Coefficients: Who's Letting Whose Side Down?

Last night marked the worst English performance in European club football since 2003. Following the best part of a decade of Champions League and Europa League (UEFA Cup to the seasoned supporter and I) success, the drying pool of English European talent is becoming abundantly clear.

The current UEFA Country Coefficient reads as such:

#	country	07/08	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	ranking	teams
1	England	17.875	15.000	17.928	18.357	14.000	83.160	1/ 8
2	Spain	13.875	13.312	17.928	18.214	16.000	79.329	5/ 7
3	Germany	13.500	12.687	18.083	15.666	13.583	73.519	3/ 6
4	Italy	10.250	11.375	15.428	11.571	11.214	59.838	1/ 7
5	Portugal	7.928	6.785	10.000	18.800	10.833	54.346	2/ 6
6	France	6.928	11.000	15.000	10.750	10.500	54.178	1/ 6
7	Russia	11.250	9.750	6.166	10.916	9.750	47.832	6
8	Netherlands	5.000	6.333	9.416	11.166	13.200	45.115	1/ 5
9	Ukraine	4.875	16.625	5.800	10.083	7.583	44.966	1/ 6
10	Greece	7.500	6.500	7.900	7.600	7.600	37.100	5

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2012.html

Fulham provided England with an extra team following a fair play league bonus entry this year but from now on, the focus falls on the future of coefficient; and whether England will fall back down the rankings. Spain effectively need their 5 remaining representatives to win both ties of their quarter finals and then two of their teams go on to win the Champions League and the Europa League between them, to overhaul England this year. A repeat of this season's performances - minus Fulham's results as they were a bonus side this year - would leave England's yearly coefficient at 11.875 (plus Chelsea's results in this year's Quarter Finals). With a total of 77.16 and Spain clearly on top, Germany would more than likely surpass the English and England's focus would be on retaining their 7th representative from the sides below.

In terms of calculating England's Coefficient, the teams' performance's impact as so:

	Clubs	qW	qD	qL	W	D	L	Bonus	Pts	Average
		Arsenal	2	0	0	4	2	2	9.000
		Chelsea	0	0	0	4	2	2	10.000
		Man. City	0	0	0	6	1	3	4.000
		Man. United	0	0	0	3	3	4	4.000
		Stoke	4	0	0	3	2	3	0.000
		Tottenham	1	1	0	3	1	2	0.000
		Birmingham	1	1	0	3	1	2	0.000
		Fulham	5	2	1	2	2	2	0.000
1		England	13	4	1	28	14	20	27.000	112.000	14.000

 http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/association=eng/uefarankings/index.html

Chelsea and Arsenal's European results have been the most impressive this year. The irony is that only one of them is likely to take next year's 4th Champions League place following sub-standard Premier League form this term.

When both Manchester clubs were pre-season favourites to progress in the elite tournament, their failure and subsequent elimination in the sister cup resulted in the significant knock to England's coefficient. Some cite a lack of interest from the best sides in an 'inferior' cup whilst the need to win the Premier League and qualify for next year's Champions League takes priority. This mentality will only damage the future of English football. If our representatives throw their games to maintain their elite status the gulf between the perennial European sides and the aspirational pretenders will only widen and a reduction in the designation of English spots will all but remove hope for the likes of Everton, Newcastle, Stoke and others.

The presence, or lack of, of Manchester United and City in the Europa League is a blight on the Premier League, when the whole midtable would give anything to represent their country on that stage. I'm not suggesting that Sunderland would be able to stop the beautiful play that Bilbao produced in two legs against United, but the stadium would be sold out, the team would play with the passion of a cup final and the country would be well represented. Take Stoke City's play compared to Tottenham's in their Europa League groups. Stoke progressed from a tougher group while Spurs played their reserves and lost, the rewards for next season - Spurs will play Champions League and barring a FA Cup triumph Stoke have nothing.

Is a change in the way England is represented at Continental level needed? Or will forward financial planning and Europa League snobbery shrink our coefficient and segregate the elite from those actually want to be there?

Or are we just not as good as we think we are...

Manchester's Crux... 2012 takes shape tonight

(Mainly West) London acknowledged its perpetual passage into the knockout phase of the Champions League last night. Despite the vulturous, story-hungry press prodding at Andre Villas Boas's less-than-supreme inauguration to the big time; the likelihood of Chelsea's passage was almost as certain as Arsenal's - prior to their night out in Europe's moochy buddy: Greece. Easy to say in hindsight, but we all thought it last night...if we're honest.

In other games, I found a tasty little bet on the bookings in APOEL Nicosia vs Shakhtar Donetsk. A nothing game with a crazy ref (the same who booked 8 in Stoke's ukranian adventure) offered low odds against < 3 yellow cards, a bet which I took, and cashed after half an hour. I shall certainly be keeping a close eye on Mr. Hategan's match appointments over the rest of the season.

On to the pressing matters for tonight's fixtures - scattered from Ajax to Zagreb; Benfica to Basle; the Mediterranean, to Manchester. There are more destiny-deciding games tonight than there were previously, a brief summary of which is enclosed:

• Group D - Lyon must better an Ajax loss by 8 goals to qualify, otherwise, the group is settled.
• Group C - Manchester United must better Benfica's result to win the group. A draw will see them through second if Benfica win. Basel must beat United to proceed.
• Group B - Inter have won the group. A nice tight battle for second and third ensues tonight as a win in Lille vs Trabzonspor takes second. CSKA Moscow can take second if they beat a weakened Inter team in Milan and the match in France ends a draw.
• Group A - The big one. 1st place Bayern Munich host the taunted bull Manchester City in the game the visitors cannot afford to lose. City still need Napoli to drop points at the group's whipping boys - Villarreal, but the longer that 2nd place stays open, the more frantic the games will become.

All in all, the outcomes of these games don't look too difficult to predict. One side of Manchester will be seeing red following a bitterly disappointing Champions League campaign. The other - preparing for the knock-out phases, but more importantly, how to make up ground in the league over the Christmas period. Is life ever this simple?

The irony is that if results do go as predicted tonight, it will strengthen Manchester City's title chances and damage their rivals. With only Europa League football to play in 2012, Man City will want nothing other than the Premier League Title - anything else will be a hollow badge of honour. By winning the Champions League, Manchester United will have the bragging rights, reminding their neighbours of the Manchester United Legacy, and keeping them 'in their place'. Now all they have to do is beat Barcelona first. Or Real. And Basel.

Tonights Betting Tips:

1.  Manchester City vs Bayern Munich - Both teams to score @ 1.74 - Betfair
2. Inter Milan vs CSKA Moscow - Lay CSKA to win @ 2.72 - Betfair
3. Dinamo Zagreb vs Lyon - Bookings Odds - Lay less than 5 points @ 3.15 - Betfair