11 games to go in the race for Premier League safety, and it's reasonably fair to say - it's a five horse race. 8 points clear of the dogfight, it's difficult to see three contenders win three more games than Aston Villa, so the contestants fighting to plant themselves on the two remaining elite seats in the musical charade of top flight football are QPR, Wolves, Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan.
The Man On football predictor has analysed all the factors and here are the results, who stays and who goes:
(Combined Remaining Opponents Rank = Sum of the current league positions of remaining opponents)
16th
Bolton:
Home Form: LDWDL
Away Form: LLLLW
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 127
Goals Scored: 29
Goals Against: 56
A strangely disappointing season for the Trotters, after years of building an established Premier League team. All the pieces seemed relatively in place for Bolton to continue to progress up the Premier League hierarchy although things are not as expected. Poor defence and a lack of bite in the team have resulted in many defeats and poor performances although the remaining quarter of the season has promise for Owen Coyle. Bolton play all the teams around them and have control over their own destiny. The only top sides they play are Spurs and Newcastle, and Tottenham will visit the Reebok. Injuries to major squad members are residing and this year's shrewd loan signing Ryo Miyaichi doesn't look too far off his predecessors - Jack Wilshere and Daniel Sturridge. On the strength of fixtures alone, Bolton look likely to pick up a pocketful of points and the number of points needed for safety could be an record low this year. A couple of wins look possible and that would bring Bolton within touching distance of safety and consolidation for another year.
17th
Blackburn:
Home Form: DWLWL
Away Form: LLDLW
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 122
Goals Scored: 38
Goals Against: 60
Blackburn's season has been tumultuous to say the least. Ever since an indifferent season in 2010 wherein Venky's management of the club was highly criticised, the club have looked a shadow of the side they were, even a few seasons ago. This year has been plagued with controversy, bad luck and poor play - Rovers have been an interesting club to follow to say the least. Steve Kean has been the constant figurehead of criticism for the less than faithful section of the Ewood Park crowd but despite this, he is still regarded as a top coach by fellow professionals. The side ships goals alarmingly - no clean sheet this season and 19 goals conceded in 4 games in February; however, there is some quality in the side - Yakubu, Hoilett, Robinson, Pedersen - and the team have performed well at times and have some memorable wins against the likes of United and Arsenal. It will be close, but Blackburn Rovers should have the quality to keep their heads above the mire of relegation. Just.
18th
Wolves:
Home Form: LLLLL
Away Form: LDWDD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 122
Goals Scored: 30
Goals Against: 51
The story surrounding Wolverhampton's dismissal of Mick McCarthy, and the promotion of Terry Connor sums up the apparent fortunes of the Midlands side. Nobody thought Wolves were an attractive, or saveable team. After a promising start to the season, the team have only won one game since the start of December. They took nearly 33% of their points in the first 3 games. They've taken 10 points from the 5 games against relegation candidates to date and face games with massive implications in March. This said, the side don't show as much talent as others around them and lack big name players to turn matches in their favour. In the reverse fixtures against the remaining ties, Wolves took 15 points, which might be enough to keep them up if repeated. Sadly, McCarthy's departure and the instability it will have created within the ranks could well be too much for the side to claw their way to safety. The game at home against Blackburn on March 10th will be key.
19th
QPR:
Home Form: DLLLW
Away Form: LDLLD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 86
Goals Scored: 28
Goals Against: 46
The run-in says it all for Queens Park Rangers. Man City; Man United; Spurs; Arsenal; Chelsea; Liverpool - QPR play 8 of the top 10 in their last 11 games. On paper, there is an argument to say that they have the strongest first team, manager, defence and attack; but it's a case of leaving it too late for rangers. They have only taken 7 points off their relegation rivals all season, and after this weekend's game against Bolton they cannot expect to take more than a couple of draws from the heavyweights of the league.
20th
Wigan:
Home Form: LDDLL
Away Form: WLLLD
Combined Remaining Opponents Rank: 97
Goals Scored: 23
Goals Against: 52
Simply being in the Premier League is an achievement for Wigan - some may say, an overachievement. 7 consecutive seasons wherein a stable club has been run, has been a credit to owner Dave Whelan, but every year the club has looked more and more likely to drop out of the top flight. Last season, the Lactics left it very late collecting 8 points from their last 4 games, and winning on the final day at Stoke to secure safety. This year looks bleaker, with the next 9 games against the sides currently occupying 2nd to 11th place in the league. Intriguingly, the penultimate and ultimate games are against Blackburn and Wolves - so if Martinez's men can stay in contention until May, their destiny is in their own hands. Unfortunately, the side's lack of goals (they are the only PL side to average under a goal a game) appears to be condemning the side to the root of the table.
Sunday, 4 March 2012
Wednesday, 29 February 2012
England 2-3 Holland: Concern for All
Although merely a 'friendly', tonight's Wembley clash between the 3rd and 5th best football teams in the world spelt disaster for both nations.
Aside from the loss, English fans cannot look at the display against the Netherlands and accept it, even if only three first team members started the match. England's lack of strength in options from defence through to attack were painfully obvious in mistakes from Richards, Baines and Smalling - although the latter left the game in very unfortunate circumstances. With what appeared to be a broken nose, Klass Jan Huntelaar's full speed collision with Smalling's head was wretched to watch and the health of both players following the sport's most dangerous injury will be of paramount importance and interest.
Following the news of Scott Parker's promotion to captain, his performance was one of note for the three lions. Leading through courageous example, Parker was never shy to tackle, block and hustle the heavyweight talents of Robben, Schneider and Van Persie - and kept them quiet for the first half of the game. Johnson at right wing impressed with some good line play, and his combinations with Micah Richards will be an interesting ingredient in the decisions regarding the right sided line-up of future teams. Short of this, England look desperately short of ideas in attack. Danny Welbeck is nowhere close to being international standard, as his skill of pace is redundant with no support or service. Whereas Rooney can create chances from nothing, as well as linking up attacks before becoming the finisher, Welbeck offers neither particularly well. Frazier Cambell cannot expect to be involved in senior action for the foreseeable future, or until he has strung at least a season of quality performances together. The light for England's attacking future comes from Daniel Sturridge. The Chelsea hitman displayed real flare, confidence and skill and created some chances of serious note. He would have been on the scoresheet if not for the excellence of Stekelenberg saving his snapshot with little view of it.
Where Hart, Parker and Sturridge showed class, Baines, Welbeck and Richards need to apply themselves differently to improve the team. Sadly, all three will make the squad to the Ukraine as the depth of the nation's talent pool is not great.
This also makes the assessment of the Holland performance a little less shiny for the Dutch. In the first period, the first string Netherlands attack could not break down England's reserves. In the European Championships, they will need to score from open play and the knockout phase sides will fortify their goals much more so than Richards, Baines, Cahill and Smalling. Two of the Dutch goals came from counter attacks which England have never been able to deal with. In two banks of four, they are unbreakable, but man for man the Germans tore them apart, the Dutch did tonight, and the Spanish will be merciless. Robben's winner took a lucky deflection and although one England goal was offside, the other was carved through the Dutch defence in a rare moment of English quality.
In foresight, both teams will qualify for the quarter finals in Euro 2012, but winning is beyond them. England's reinforcements will be called upon, through injury, fatigue, and mindless kick-induced suspensions. For the Netherlands, the side look strong, but will struggle to break down the highest seeds in the tournament and following an easy run in to the final of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, will not find it so easy in Eastern Europe.
Aside from the loss, English fans cannot look at the display against the Netherlands and accept it, even if only three first team members started the match. England's lack of strength in options from defence through to attack were painfully obvious in mistakes from Richards, Baines and Smalling - although the latter left the game in very unfortunate circumstances. With what appeared to be a broken nose, Klass Jan Huntelaar's full speed collision with Smalling's head was wretched to watch and the health of both players following the sport's most dangerous injury will be of paramount importance and interest.
Following the news of Scott Parker's promotion to captain, his performance was one of note for the three lions. Leading through courageous example, Parker was never shy to tackle, block and hustle the heavyweight talents of Robben, Schneider and Van Persie - and kept them quiet for the first half of the game. Johnson at right wing impressed with some good line play, and his combinations with Micah Richards will be an interesting ingredient in the decisions regarding the right sided line-up of future teams. Short of this, England look desperately short of ideas in attack. Danny Welbeck is nowhere close to being international standard, as his skill of pace is redundant with no support or service. Whereas Rooney can create chances from nothing, as well as linking up attacks before becoming the finisher, Welbeck offers neither particularly well. Frazier Cambell cannot expect to be involved in senior action for the foreseeable future, or until he has strung at least a season of quality performances together. The light for England's attacking future comes from Daniel Sturridge. The Chelsea hitman displayed real flare, confidence and skill and created some chances of serious note. He would have been on the scoresheet if not for the excellence of Stekelenberg saving his snapshot with little view of it.
Where Hart, Parker and Sturridge showed class, Baines, Welbeck and Richards need to apply themselves differently to improve the team. Sadly, all three will make the squad to the Ukraine as the depth of the nation's talent pool is not great.
This also makes the assessment of the Holland performance a little less shiny for the Dutch. In the first period, the first string Netherlands attack could not break down England's reserves. In the European Championships, they will need to score from open play and the knockout phase sides will fortify their goals much more so than Richards, Baines, Cahill and Smalling. Two of the Dutch goals came from counter attacks which England have never been able to deal with. In two banks of four, they are unbreakable, but man for man the Germans tore them apart, the Dutch did tonight, and the Spanish will be merciless. Robben's winner took a lucky deflection and although one England goal was offside, the other was carved through the Dutch defence in a rare moment of English quality.
In foresight, both teams will qualify for the quarter finals in Euro 2012, but winning is beyond them. England's reinforcements will be called upon, through injury, fatigue, and mindless kick-induced suspensions. For the Netherlands, the side look strong, but will struggle to break down the highest seeds in the tournament and following an easy run in to the final of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, will not find it so easy in Eastern Europe.
Tuesday, 27 December 2011
The Next Big Thing pt. 1
The Premier League tome of 20 years provides endless stories, dripping with emotion, pathos, grandeur and glory. Remarkable teams have been constructed and cities have thrived from footballing success. Aside from the Manchester Uniteds, the Chelseas and Arsenals; underdogs have risen and written their own fairytales - and this draws your attention to the quality and legacy of British football. Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Leicester City, Sheffield Wednesday, Wimbledon, Southampton: All sides who were top 10 clubs; and then fell to the third tier of the relentless pecking order.
This year Blackburn Rovers, once great champions of the battleground, look destined to fall from the echelons of British football. Whilst a tragic fall from prominence, the potential lies for new challengers to evolve into footballing superpowers.
The question is; who is the next big club to succeed in the Premier League?
The Contenders:
The most progressing club in the recent premier league past is Stoke City. 10 years ago, Stoke won the 3rd Division play-off final. 4 Years ago, they came second in the Championship. This season, they are 8th in the Premier League, in the Europa League knock-out phase and are developing a squad seasoned with international footballers. There is a real air of excitement in the city that the club has established itself as perennial top flight team with the foundations to become a perennial winning team. Stoke's success is built upon 3 factors: The fans, the club structure and the spirit.
The season ticket holders in the Boothen End of the Britannia Stadium are undoubtedly the noisiest, rowdiest and most passionate fans in the country. Defenders facing a corner, free-kick or Rory Delap throw-in are gladiators in a cacophonic amphitheatre, only the striped tigers they fight are >6ft brutes intent on battering their goalmouth.
Stoke's philosophy to date has been hire terminators, press the opposition constantly, score through sheer brutality. They have been a shining example of how to survive in the premier league in the face of the 'play "like" Barce, go down with some swagger' sides. The interested now watch how Pulis develops the side. The additions of Palacios, Crouch, Woodgate and Upson add pedigree to the side (as well as 71 England caps), without compromising the bite of Shawcross and Huth and the Stanley Matthews-ery of wingers Pennant and Etherington. Now the Potters need attacking full-backs, a play maker midfielder and a clinical marksman to push them even further towards the league's elite.
In keeping with the Coates ownership style, this metamorphosis will be done slowly and to a budget - keeping the club in its comfort zone. If constant success continues, the club will be a prime takeover target for overseas investors and that is what will take Stoke City to the top of the English game.
What the future holds for Stoke City:
This year Blackburn Rovers, once great champions of the battleground, look destined to fall from the echelons of British football. Whilst a tragic fall from prominence, the potential lies for new challengers to evolve into footballing superpowers.
The question is; who is the next big club to succeed in the Premier League?
The Contenders:
STOKE CITY -----
The season ticket holders in the Boothen End of the Britannia Stadium are undoubtedly the noisiest, rowdiest and most passionate fans in the country. Defenders facing a corner, free-kick or Rory Delap throw-in are gladiators in a cacophonic amphitheatre, only the striped tigers they fight are >6ft brutes intent on battering their goalmouth.
Stoke's philosophy to date has been hire terminators, press the opposition constantly, score through sheer brutality. They have been a shining example of how to survive in the premier league in the face of the 'play "like" Barce, go down with some swagger' sides. The interested now watch how Pulis develops the side. The additions of Palacios, Crouch, Woodgate and Upson add pedigree to the side (as well as 71 England caps), without compromising the bite of Shawcross and Huth and the Stanley Matthews-ery of wingers Pennant and Etherington. Now the Potters need attacking full-backs, a play maker midfielder and a clinical marksman to push them even further towards the league's elite.In keeping with the Coates ownership style, this metamorphosis will be done slowly and to a budget - keeping the club in its comfort zone. If constant success continues, the club will be a prime takeover target for overseas investors and that is what will take Stoke City to the top of the English game.
What the future holds for Stoke City:
- Potential signings 2012: Full-Backs - Wayne Bridge, Nedum Onuoha Midfielders - Junior Hoilett, Nigel Reo-Coker, Jermaine Jenas Attackers - Yakubu, Victor Moses
- Fill in the stadium corners - lift the stadium capacity to over 30,000 to fund long term development (3,000 extra seats could increase ticket revenues by £2.5m per year). A dome will have to be installed to stop the noise complaints from neighbours in Wales.
- An England call-up for Ryan Shawcross.
- Continual top 10 finishes for the next five years, adding good players until European football is more than a one-off. Then the big money will move in and the bigger name marquee signings.
Wednesday, 7 December 2011
Manchester's Crux... 2012 takes shape tonight
(Mainly West) London acknowledged its perpetual passage into the knockout phase of the Champions League last night. Despite the vulturous, story-hungry press prodding at Andre Villas Boas's less-than-supreme inauguration to the big time; the likelihood of Chelsea's passage was almost as certain as Arsenal's - prior to their night out in Europe's moochy buddy: Greece. Easy to say in hindsight, but we all thought it last night...if we're honest.
In other games, I found a tasty little bet on the bookings in APOEL Nicosia vs Shakhtar Donetsk. A nothing game with a crazy ref (the same who booked 8 in Stoke's ukranian adventure) offered low odds against < 3 yellow cards, a bet which I took, and cashed after half an hour. I shall certainly be keeping a close eye on Mr. Hategan's match appointments over the rest of the season.
On to the pressing matters for tonight's fixtures - scattered from Ajax to Zagreb; Benfica to Basle; the Mediterranean, to Manchester. There are more destiny-deciding games tonight than there were previously, a brief summary of which is enclosed:
In other games, I found a tasty little bet on the bookings in APOEL Nicosia vs Shakhtar Donetsk. A nothing game with a crazy ref (the same who booked 8 in Stoke's ukranian adventure) offered low odds against < 3 yellow cards, a bet which I took, and cashed after half an hour. I shall certainly be keeping a close eye on Mr. Hategan's match appointments over the rest of the season.
On to the pressing matters for tonight's fixtures - scattered from Ajax to Zagreb; Benfica to Basle; the Mediterranean, to Manchester. There are more destiny-deciding games tonight than there were previously, a brief summary of which is enclosed:
- Group D - Lyon must better an Ajax loss by 8 goals to qualify, otherwise, the group is settled.
- Group C - Manchester United must better Benfica's result to win the group. A draw will see them through second if Benfica win. Basel must beat United to proceed.
- Group B - Inter have won the group. A nice tight battle for second and third ensues tonight as a win in Lille vs Trabzonspor takes second. CSKA Moscow can take second if they beat a weakened Inter team in Milan and the match in France ends a draw.
- Group A - The big one. 1st place Bayern Munich host the taunted bull Manchester City in the game the visitors cannot afford to lose. City still need Napoli to drop points at the group's whipping boys - Villarreal, but the longer that 2nd place stays open, the more frantic the games will become.
The irony is that if results do go as predicted tonight, it will strengthen Manchester City's title chances and damage their rivals. With only Europa League football to play in 2012, Man City will want nothing other than the Premier League Title - anything else will be a hollow badge of honour. By winning the Champions League, Manchester United will have the bragging rights, reminding their neighbours of the Manchester United Legacy, and keeping them 'in their place'. Now all they have to do is beat Barcelona first. Or Real. And Basel.
Tonights Betting Tips:
- Manchester City vs Bayern Munich - Both teams to score @ 1.74 - Betfair
- Inter Milan vs CSKA Moscow - Lay CSKA to win @ 2.72 - Betfair
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Lyon - Bookings Odds - Lay less than 5 points @ 3.15 - Betfair
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Genesis
Welcome to the Man On football blog.
I left University with the pipe dream of writing a football magazine with no media experience or financial backing. Soon the need for cash resulted in getting a real job, but the ambition remains and this blog fulfils a small scale substitute.
Who knows where this will lead to, but for the meantime enjoy the football related content.
Jack
I left University with the pipe dream of writing a football magazine with no media experience or financial backing. Soon the need for cash resulted in getting a real job, but the ambition remains and this blog fulfils a small scale substitute.
Who knows where this will lead to, but for the meantime enjoy the football related content.
Jack
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