The Next Big Thing pt. 2

The stranglehold of money on the British game has changed the dynamic of football in the country. On the day that the £105 million St. George's Park was unveiled, this blog will study a potential club that can penetrate the oligopoly of the "fat cat" sides financed by hundreds of millions of dollars, dirhams and roubles.

The Contenders:

      NORWICH CITY -----

Norwich City Football club have a strong history in the Premier League, and nearly won the inaugural championship. Their third place finish in 1993 - and subsequent foray into the UEFA cup - was the club's most successful season and proved that the club had potential. Unfortunately, that potential was not built upon, and changes of ownership and personnel led to relegations. Subsequently, one season of top flight football in over 15 years left the club firmly off English football's map, until now.

The double promotion from League One to a 12th place finish in last season's Premiership was a surprise, even to die-hard Canary fans. Paul Lambert's tutelage of carefully selected lower league players moulded a side eager to impress, with a good footballing ability. If this blog had been written months ago, the appraisal of Norwich's fortunes would have been rosier, but Lambert's departure this summer has shaken the current side. Star player Grant Holt requested to leave and the confidence of recent performances under Chris Hughton is a shadow of last year. Surviving this term is vital. Only then can the positives of the club be built upon to create something that can restore the club to its previous stature, and maybe even take a shot at a European adventure.

The main advantage that Norwich have as a club, is a massive following. As the only League team in Norfolk, and the only Premier League team (out of only 4 rival clubs) in a number of neighbouring counties. In short, there are millions of people who can count Norwich City as their "local club". Unfortunately, Carrow Road holds only a few seats over 27,000 with little scope for expansion in its City Centre location. The ground is sold out weekly but without the potential to increase earnings, the side cannot be developed unless money is invested in the club - something which Delia Smith is not likely to knead into the team in large quantities. The side has some players with skill, Wes Hoolahan being a noteworthy example but depth needs adding to a side which rode on an extraordinary manager last year. The defence is shaky at best and the goals have dried up this term, so some burly defenders and goal scoring machine is needed to add to a budding fluidity about the squad. The location of the club is off the beaten track, which may deter some signings, but the good weather, wealthy districts and proximity to London and the South East may lure some quality players to live in the area.

Progress is not to expected too soon though, and a 'project' to turn Norwich City into a powerhouse side would require hard work, risk and luck. At this moment in time, the Canaries would be forgiven for just enjoying their time in the spotlight of the top tier and none of this will be on their minds until the final whistle blows in May, and Norwich have clawed themselves into next year's Premier League.

What the future holds for Norwich City:

1. Potential signings 2013: Defenders - Curtis Davies, Kyle Naughton (Re-Loan) Attackers -    Craig Mackail-Smith, John Guidetti
2. Premier League survival on the last day of the season, away to Man City
3. Delia Smith & Michael Wynn-Jones to sell part or all of their stake in the club
4. An England international either bought to or groomed at the club (aside from current keeper John Ruddy)
5. Once established in the league, a cup run in either the League or FA Cup

    

  

The International Hangover: Effects on the Title Chasers

The bane of top flight managers jobs, yet an excuse for failure or fatigue. The international break provides endless fodder for the media, the industry and the public to belly-ache about ill-timing, long travels and just how seriously people take them. There is definitely an effect on the league, and this blog will try to delve into just what happens to the results following these player dispersions. The first table below shows the results of the "top 6" teams in the games following and before the international break.

Conclusions to be drawn from this data include:

• Liverpool have only won 2 of the last 10 games after the international break
• Chelsea have only won 4 of the last 10 games
• Manchester City have only lost 1 of the last 10 (To Manchester United)
• Before the Everton away game as the opener this season, Manchester United were undefeated
• Tottenham were undefeated, until the 3-1 loss to Arsenal which coincided with the beginning of a spell of 1 win in 9 league games (Arguably the reason that Spurs lost the last Champions League position and lost Harry Redknapp)
• Arsenal have only one loss and none against lower level opposition - the same as Man City
• Arsenal have a poor record in the games before the break, but an excellent record in the first games back

In terms of betting, this data suggests that there is no advantage to Laying either of the Manchester clubs or Arsenal, but opportunities may arise by looking at Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool.

Looking at this information in further detail, a comparison against the clubs' general league performance over the same period can highlight areas to of interest:

On this chart, a red number means that the performances were worse than the average over the whole period and a green is an improvement. The first columns are the games after the international break and the second columns are the games before each break. 

In terms of wins, Man City and Arsenal lead the way, 15% and 18% more wins than the average for those seasons. Man Utd and Spurs are roughly the same but Chelsea and Liverpool are -12% and -20% respectively. In terms of picking out info for betting the key stats that stand out to me are:

• Arsenal to win after the break, but not before
• Liverpool not to win after the break
• Chelsea to struggle
• The draw is unlikely in Tottenham and Chelsea games pre-break

Using this information, and naturally taking into account other factors, here are some tentative early predictions for the first results following England's games in Moldova and against the Ukraine this week:

Back Arsenal to beat Southampton at Home

Back Manchester City to beat Stoke Away 

Back Manchester United to beat Wigan at Home

Lay Chelsea against QPR Away

Lay Liverpool against Sunderland Away

Lay Tottenham against Reading Away

Why Grant Holt Should Represent England At Euro 2012

Let's not disguise it, England has a problem. For years now, the national side has had its issues: with managers; with formations and with players. This summer's tournament in Poland and Ukraine is no different, and as it stands the team has no leader, no manager and no direction. Come June, Stuart Pearce (or possibly a Harry Redknapp cameo) will have to sew a patchwork squad together whilst the press howls for a new generation to be blooded. Whereas the future is obviously important, this year's tournament is about now and represents a unique opportunity for an underdog to steal the title, and for England to do so, they need their own underdog. Grant Holt.

There are obvious voices for opposition to Holt's promotion to the top stage, he's not fast and he has no experience at International or Continental level, he only has 33 games at Premier League level. Recent call-ups for over 30's have not produced any performances of outstanding note. Examples include Kevin Davies' call-up to face Montenegro in 2011, Alan Thompson's substitute appearance in a 2004 friendly, Tim Sherwood - under Keegan - and Chris Powell's 5 game run at left back in 2001. History does not favour the shock call-ups and even if there is a shock - take Theo Walcott in 2006 - they still might not get to play.

 

But enough of the negatives, this blog is about massaging the minds of the England selectors (whom I sincerely hope are reading) into taking the Norfolk legend-in-the-making to Krakow, in both the hope that he will add to the national side, and get his just rewards for a dedicated career in the game.

Originally from Carlisle, Holt has progressed through Workington, Halifax and Barrow up to Nottingham Forest and Norwich, playing in over 6 tiers. A summer cameo for Sengkang Marine in Singapore is also in his resume. You don't play 350 English League games without learning a few tricks and the natural progression with Norwich, as top club scorer in 3 consecutive leagues stamps his ability to adapt to higher levels with ease.

Holt's goals this year have come against International quality defences. Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton and Swansea have hosted 5 of his strikes and at home Blackburn, QPR, Newcastle, Man Utd, Wolves and Everton have felt the force of Holt. Out of these teams, the defenders on show represent England, Holland, France, Sweden, Portugal, Wales, Serbia, Slovakia and Congo at the top. Stamford Bridge, Anfield and Goodison Park are not easy places to go and score and the only top teams missing from the list of internationals are Spain and Germany.

With regards to those goals, there aren't many scrappy ones. For all their passing and technique, Norwich are a long ball team, with a league high 15 of their 47 goals coming from headers. 5 of these were Holt's. He took two penalties and scored them both - of which there is obvious value to the national side. In short, Holt's natural game would fit into the England set up, as the history of playing wingers and aiming to beat teams down the flanks requires someone capable of good positioning and heading ability. 2 of England's 3 goals at the last World Cup came from crosses. With Ashley Young, Adam Johnson, Theo Walcott, Aaron Lennon, James Milner, Stewart Downing or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain likely to make the team, and overlapping fullbacks, Grant Holt is much more accomplished to finish the chances these players would create then the likes of Jermaine Defoe, Darren Bent or Danny Welbeck.

But Holt isn't just a battering ram or target man. His goal to swing the tie against Wolves was the mark of a striker with a great footballing mind, and the touch and composure to match, which drew the attention of others than just myself: 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/mar/25/norwich-wolverhampton-wanderers-premier-league-report1

And finally, the comparison against his competition:

• Defoe - Took a while, but graduated to become an England regular. If he had played for Spurs all season, would be a certainty; probably to start. The irony is that Harry Redknapp's lack of faith in him may be carried to the England side should he step up.
• Bent - A completely different player to Holt. A poacher, who's played for a bad team this year. Seems to score goals all the time, except for his rare England chances.
• Sturridge - Has shown talent, including substitute appearance in the latest friendly. Should be taken, but deployed on the wing.
• Welbeck - Has moved into Sir Alex Ferguson's first team, but still needs to improve finishing and first touch before becoming integral to England. Is developing a rapport with Rooney.
• Rooney - No-one will keep him out, England's best striker.
• Crouch - Holt's main comparison, has had his chances but hasn't been as hot at Stoke.
• Carroll - Flopped after gargantuan transfer, may mature to hold England number 9 shirt, far too inconsistent and out of form.
• Zamora - Can be a brilliant target, but form has been patchy and needs a consistent domestic season to impress.
• Campbell - Missed too much of Sunderland's season, despite fleeting shines.
• Agbonlahor - Has missed games and played in a poor side, may have missed chance.
• Graham - Done Holt's job at Swansea. Hasn't done more than good finishing.

There are infinite combinations of reasons to support and condemn a player's selection for England, but the point trying to be raised for Grant Holt's inclusion in the Squad for Poland and Ukraine is that all his stock is falling together at just the right time. He's had a relatively easy season - 38 games maximum - and in those games he's scored goals, set up attractive play and maintained great form. Behind Rooney, he is statistically England's best striker and on the tactics board he ticks all the boxes of England's game plan. A final point of note is his influence on a squad. As Norwich captain, he's a leader, who knows the game and knows how to inspire the players around him. Holt would bring a refreshing change from the normal mentality of an England player, who realistically would be making his grand finale of journeyman football career. With nothing to lose, and nothing bigger in his career after this summer, he wouldn't take himself too seriously (I'll never forget watching him instigate an ear flicking policy on the loser of a keepy-uppy contest in a warm-up) and would play with the freedom that would allow his talent to flow at the tournament.

Barring Paul Lambert's surprise call up as manager, I implore the boss to select Holt, as the catalyst for tournament success needs some ingenuity and braveness, and Grant Holt's inclusion might just give that to the nation.

Who Are Anhzi Makhachkala?

The world is turned by money. The footballing world is moulded by it. Any club can be plucked from nothing and thrust into the world's spotlight if enough cash is showered over the team. That is what happened to Anhzi Makhachkala.

It's safe to assume that you've heard of the Russian club, or have heard of their antics over the last year, but who exactly are 'the wild division' and how did their story arise?
First a little history. Formed in 1991 (they're younger than Mario Balotelli), the club are based in the Dagestan region of Russian - of which Makhachkala is the capital. Instead of the permafrost image of Cossack hats and vodka; think more of the middle east, as the city is nearer to Baghdad then Moscow. In their 20 years of existence, they have dined at Russia's top table 4 times, and apart from one 4th place finish, have never played better than a Premiership relegation fodder. If they were in English football; they would be Ipswich Town. This brief history is nothing, compared to the intense transformation that has happened since January 2011, when Suleyman Kerimov took over the club.

With £7.8bn as his personal fortune, Kerimov is the 118th richest man in the world. If you're grasping for some perspective, he is only narrowly eclipsed by the more familiar fiscally endowed Premiership owners of Chelsea and Man City:



Kerimov - born in Dagestan, and an accounting and economics graduate from the city's University - is the equivalent of a minister in Russia's 'democratic' government. It may be hard to understand how Kerimov has nearly £8bn, whereas John Prescott - his British equivalent (and I use that in the loosest possible context) - doesn't. Put simply, the Russian government owns half of Gazprom - the world's largest gas producer. With turnover of $117bn a year - that's 1.17 trillion dollars - the Russian government collect $58 billion per year, and not all of that finds its way to the peasants. Kerimov decided to invest in his beloved hometown, and what better way than to pluck the minnows out of obscurity and place them on a plinth to impress the European elite.

Aside from building a new 40,000 seater stadium and investing heavily in infrastructure, he has spent lavishly on players, so much so that the already distorted boundaries of morals and logic have been torn at the seams. Anzhi Makhachkala's starting XI reads so:

Gabulov

     Angbwa         Joao Carlos          Samba         Roberto Carlos

Boussoufa          Carcela-Gonzalez            Jucilei        Zhirkov

     Eto'o            Holenda

Of these names, only the Chelsea cast-off Yuri Zhirkov is the only Russian. Big names including ex-Blackburn star Christopher Samba added to the colossal verterans Roberto Carlos and Samuel Eto'o this year, who became the world's highest earning footballer in the deal with a reported $20million post tax salary, per year. That's close to what Premier League teams can spend in wages on an entire squad. There's no doubting that bigger names will continue to drop in Dagestan with the only competition in terms of financial firepower from emerging Chinese forces. The club's development will explode when the side qualifies for European football, which could be as early as next season. The Russian Premier League is in a transition period as the season start time is being changed from November to August. To accommodate this, this season's championship is being extended into a marathon 18 month campaign, ending in May 2012. After November 2011, the table was split in 2 and the two halves of 8 teams will play each other twice more to determine the winners of European places and relegation. Anhzi scraped into the top half with two games to spare this year, but with the points carrying over for the last shootout campaign, it is unlikely that the out of form team will achieve any top honours.

Next season will be an astonishing spectacle. The club will no doubt sign a host of marquee names and continue to develop under new boss Guus Hiddink's masterful tutelage. With the money behind them, in a less than top league the side will be in the 2014 Champions League and it will be a delight to see how the Manchester's and London's deal with the prospect of a chilly night in Dagestan, considering the environment is not what could be described as, familiar, in the capital.

European Coefficients: Who's Letting Whose Side Down?

Last night marked the worst English performance in European club football since 2003. Following the best part of a decade of Champions League and Europa League (UEFA Cup to the seasoned supporter and I) success, the drying pool of English European talent is becoming abundantly clear.

The current UEFA Country Coefficient reads as such:

#	country	07/08	08/09	09/10	10/11	11/12	ranking	teams
1	England	17.875	15.000	17.928	18.357	14.000	83.160	1/ 8
2	Spain	13.875	13.312	17.928	18.214	16.000	79.329	5/ 7
3	Germany	13.500	12.687	18.083	15.666	13.583	73.519	3/ 6
4	Italy	10.250	11.375	15.428	11.571	11.214	59.838	1/ 7
5	Portugal	7.928	6.785	10.000	18.800	10.833	54.346	2/ 6
6	France	6.928	11.000	15.000	10.750	10.500	54.178	1/ 6
7	Russia	11.250	9.750	6.166	10.916	9.750	47.832	6
8	Netherlands	5.000	6.333	9.416	11.166	13.200	45.115	1/ 5
9	Ukraine	4.875	16.625	5.800	10.083	7.583	44.966	1/ 6
10	Greece	7.500	6.500	7.900	7.600	7.600	37.100	5

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2012.html

Fulham provided England with an extra team following a fair play league bonus entry this year but from now on, the focus falls on the future of coefficient; and whether England will fall back down the rankings. Spain effectively need their 5 remaining representatives to win both ties of their quarter finals and then two of their teams go on to win the Champions League and the Europa League between them, to overhaul England this year. A repeat of this season's performances - minus Fulham's results as they were a bonus side this year - would leave England's yearly coefficient at 11.875 (plus Chelsea's results in this year's Quarter Finals). With a total of 77.16 and Spain clearly on top, Germany would more than likely surpass the English and England's focus would be on retaining their 7th representative from the sides below.

In terms of calculating England's Coefficient, the teams' performance's impact as so:

	Clubs	qW	qD	qL	W	D	L	Bonus	Pts	Average
		Arsenal	2	0	0	4	2	2	9.000
		Chelsea	0	0	0	4	2	2	10.000
		Man. City	0	0	0	6	1	3	4.000
		Man. United	0	0	0	3	3	4	4.000
		Stoke	4	0	0	3	2	3	0.000
		Tottenham	1	1	0	3	1	2	0.000
		Birmingham	1	1	0	3	1	2	0.000
		Fulham	5	2	1	2	2	2	0.000
1		England	13	4	1	28	14	20	27.000	112.000	14.000

 http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/association=eng/uefarankings/index.html

Chelsea and Arsenal's European results have been the most impressive this year. The irony is that only one of them is likely to take next year's 4th Champions League place following sub-standard Premier League form this term.

When both Manchester clubs were pre-season favourites to progress in the elite tournament, their failure and subsequent elimination in the sister cup resulted in the significant knock to England's coefficient. Some cite a lack of interest from the best sides in an 'inferior' cup whilst the need to win the Premier League and qualify for next year's Champions League takes priority. This mentality will only damage the future of English football. If our representatives throw their games to maintain their elite status the gulf between the perennial European sides and the aspirational pretenders will only widen and a reduction in the designation of English spots will all but remove hope for the likes of Everton, Newcastle, Stoke and others.

The presence, or lack of, of Manchester United and City in the Europa League is a blight on the Premier League, when the whole midtable would give anything to represent their country on that stage. I'm not suggesting that Sunderland would be able to stop the beautiful play that Bilbao produced in two legs against United, but the stadium would be sold out, the team would play with the passion of a cup final and the country would be well represented. Take Stoke City's play compared to Tottenham's in their Europa League groups. Stoke progressed from a tougher group while Spurs played their reserves and lost, the rewards for next season - Spurs will play Champions League and barring a FA Cup triumph Stoke have nothing.

Is a change in the way England is represented at Continental level needed? Or will forward financial planning and Europa League snobbery shrink our coefficient and segregate the elite from those actually want to be there?

Or are we just not as good as we think we are...