Thursday, 21 February 2013

Lionel Messi: Will he score 1000 goals?

Scoring 100 goals in a professional footballing career is an achievement. 500 is outstanding. 1000, puts you in an elite club of a handful of players - each of which is disputed as records of all the goals are debated due to the length of time they span and the accuracy of those records.

Last week, Lionel Messi, 25, scored his 300th domestic career goal, making his total including his national team goals stand at 332.

Put simply, his goal tally has grown like this:
A clear pattern emerges. Following the current trend Messi will eclipse his goals scoring record this season, and will eventually score 100 goals in a season. The incremental growth will not continue indefinitely, as this would result in him scoring 150+ goals per season in his 30's, so identifying a point where the climb will curtail will tell if he will reach the magic 1000 goal mark. 

Let's assume Messi scores 90 goals this term, which will put him on 374 goals - 626 to go. Assuming he has 10 more seasons ahead, that's 63 goals a season, but the goals will dry up with age. 5 more seasons with an average of 90 goals will make the total 824, but 176 from the age of 31 onwards will be a tall order.

To summarise, Lionel will need to continue his prolific scoring record for the next 7 seasons at least, without injury or lack of form. Right now he is the best in the world, but if he makes 1000 goals, he will undoubtedly be the greatest of all time.